BTC 盈亏平衡点位于 73,000 美元，标志着结构性接近熊市底部
Analysis of BTC market cycles using the Re。
Analysis of BTC market cycles using the Realized Net Profit/Loss Ratio indicator suggests $73,000 represents the current breakeven zone. During bear markets, the profit/loss ratio's negative deviations progressively narrow in the second half, as high-basis bags get distributed to lower levels. The prior cycle from December 2021 to April 2023 exhibited this pattern. The current cycle from October 2025 to January 2026 completed the first half, where ratio deviations crossing zero narrowed. As the bear market enters its second half,反弹 are expected to terminate at the zero-axis breakeven level, with negative ratio offsets continuing to shrink. The analyst concludes the second half has not finished but structural bottoming characteristics are gradually emerging, with any upside beyond the zero axis likely limited to a few thousand dollars.
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