美伊停火协议生效后高盛下调 2026 年第二季度油价预测
Goldman Sachs downgraded its Q2 2026 Brent crude oil forecast.
Goldman Sachs downgraded its Q2 2026 Brent crude oil forecast from $99 to $90 per barrel and WTI crude from $91 to $87 per barrel after the US-Iran temporary ceasefire. The bank cited reduced risk premiums and gradual恢复 of Hormuz Strait traffic as primary drivers. Brent crude fell approximately 11% this week. Goldman Sachs maintained its H2 2026 oil price forecast unchanged but warned that if Middle East supply disruptions persist with intensified production losses, Brent could spike to $115 per barrel in an extreme scenario. The bank also lowered its European TTF natural gas price forecast to 50 euros/MWh, while cautioning that LNG transport disruptions could push gas prices above 75 euros/MWh. Overall, the ceasefire offers short-term relief to market tensions, but medium-to-long-term energy markets remain exposed to geopolitical volatility.
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